This is why alliances and economic partnerships are so important in a world of increasing multipolarity. France, Germany, India, and Japan are powers in their own right, for example. Military and economic rivalry among the United States, China, and Russia is important to geopolitics, but so is the degree to which other “great powers,” some with nuclear weapons, seek alternative paths, potentially together. debates over “great power competition” obscure the true state of international affairs that is evolving. alliances hold in this world, though allies more selectively choose where to align with the United States versus choosing their own paths.Ĭurrent U.S. In the new geopolitical environment, it is increasingly difficult for any single country to exercise its will, and multiple poles compete and cooperate.The “Great Power Competition” paradigm in the most recent National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy inaccurately describes this new geopolitical environment. and likely others’ defense budgets, which could affect the pace of force modernization. The economic effects of Covid-19 will increase downward pressure on U.S.Neither China nor the United States is positioned to emerge from Covid-19 as a “winner” in a way that would dramatically shift the balance of world power in its favor.Covid-19 has accelerated the transition to a more fragmented world order in which the future organizing principles of the international system are unclear.But what about the long-term impact?ĬSIS Risk and Foresight Group Director Sam Brannen asked four of his International Security Program colleagues to take the long view on how Covid-19 could affect geopolitics out to 2025-2030 and beyond. Escalating tensions between the United States and China are the clearest immediate-term outcome. The Covid-19 pandemic is reshaping geopolitics.
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